UK Votes To Leave the European Union

[Xiarr Sair]

Doesn't parliament still have to vote?

 

[sabrina]

[member="Xiarr Sair "]does not have to but can, and it has to follow the will of the people.

 

[Darth Hauntruss]

HISS HISS'S POLITICS CORNER​

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuL687HGfjI​

As someone who has studied Politics and International Relations, I wanted to just add a few things. I wont discuss my personal opinion on Brexit, as I think everyone here has done that already. But, when it comes to the mechanics of "leaving" the EU (and I put leaving in quotes because, as much as the Brexit Voters think that now that they "won" the referendum, the EU, its relations, the many treaties made will suddenly disappear, when really they should be prepared for a long and messy divorce) there are some points that need to be addressed.

1. But, MUH Referendum
A referendum is not legally binding, i.e. the Government is not legally bound to uphold the referendum -- a referendum by all points and purposes is a hyped up opinion poll, which is designed to gauge the sentiments of a populace on a certain subject. Yes, there is the added angle that "they must obey the will of the people" -- but the question arises who are these people? The UK is not a single coherent nation it is a union of nations, who does the government uphold? The Scottish and NRI have made it very clear that they wish to stay and to go ahead with Brexit would be a clear violation of their will as expressed in their votes. However, then their is Northern England who was the main thrust in the Brexit vote succeeding. The catch 22 for the UK government is that Brexit is not the same as Englexit. So in conclusion the UK Gov will have to be very careful in how it plays the "leaving" and "respecting the will of the people" part.

2. We're Leaving!
In the Lisbon Treaty of 2007, which is designed to amend and be the crux of the EU Constitution, their is a clause known as Article 50. This Article is designed to assist in a nation-state's with drawl from the EU.

Article 50 reads as such:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned,
unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it. A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)B of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

Fun fact this will be the very first time Article 50 is invoked. Now if you read the above, you will notice that the UK has to navigate a few bumps in the road to properly "leaving" the EU.

Hiss Hiss Political Geo-Economic Conundrum's Corner: What does it actually mean to try and "leave"?
Before we move onto discussing these bumps in the road, its important that we explain this phrase "Leaving The EU". As you all may know we live in a very globally connected and internationally economic time (whether for better or for worse is yet to be determined.) These days Free-Trade Agreements (FTAs), Economic Partnerships (EP) Agreements and general Economic Treaties are being shared, consolidated and ratified at higher and higher volumes. This allows for TNCs (trans-national corporations) to become even more far reaching and even more embedded in the life blood of economies around the world. With this the flow of labour has increased as well, no a days one can pack up and move to another country relatively easily and begin a working history there.

The issue, and this is of major debate these days, is whether this is a good thing -- this is a debate for another time. For the purposes of Brexit voter's will to "leave the EU" we will discuss the issue of trying to remove ourselves from such interconnected economic entity -- such as the EU.

Now for Brexiters there seems to be some miscommunication on the part of their movement leaders Farage and Boris. Their rhetoric seems to indicate that Winning the Referendum = Complete Removal from EU. Now the question arises what are you leaving from? EU Parliament? EU Economic Regulations? EU Economy? EU Labour Market? The Referendum indeed can usher in the UK reversing its agreements to EU Economic Regulations, EU Parliament Rulings however, their is a problem with the EU Economy and EU Labour Market. The Brexiters think that if UK leaves the EU it also can remove itself from the Labour Flow of the EU -- when sadly this is untrue. Regardless of whether the UK is in or leaves the EU, the flow of migrant workers and immigrants looking for employment does not (or should not barring any isolationist/protectionist agendas by the way the UK which if they do -- that causes its own set of problems which can be explored later) should not fluctuate into a downward trend. This is because while the UK can institutional remove itself rom the EU it is already and irreversibly linked to the EU Economy and by extension the EU labour flow.

In terms of economics, Brexiters are lead to believe that "leaving the EU" will result in the UK never ever having to deal with the EU regulations imposed on the products and services that are exchanged within its economic purview. However, the UK (you will all agree) finds the EU to be a major trading partner so it is unlikely that it will stop. But, then this poses some issues. How do you trade with a partner who has rules and regulations that your nation does not follow and thus does not impose?

Here is an example:

In the USA seat belts that are built and installed into cars have to pass a certain weight test. The seat belt is placed in a machine that pulls the belt to test its stopping power. It is regulated by US LAW that the belts are tested at a mass pressure of X kg. A Canadian car manufacturer trying to sell one of its cars to USA however, tests its seat belts at Y kg. Under US Law the Canadians product is illegal because it doesn't match the US product law about seat belts.

Such a technicality causes the Canadian to lose on business and the US buyer the lose of increased variety of products to choose from.

This exact situation is what lead to NAFTA. Anyways, this situation will most probably happen with EU and UK. The EU and the UK will have to drastically and quickly re-write their trade agreements. And what will come as a major disappointment to Brexiters, to preserve the current trading standards and good relations economically (and not risk alienating a major trading partner) the UK will do little to change its current standing.

Multiply this issue with Political Relations in terms of Aid/Humanitarian Efforts which the EU has its own regulations, Economic Relations in terms of Services like Banking, and so and so on.

Personally, I think Brexiters will be rather disappointed as much, if not most, of what the UK bartered for in their arms-length joining of the EU will not change significantly to warrant the phrase "WE LEFT THE EU."


These are some things to keep in mind in the few years to come. Let it be noted that the EU has given UK the maximum of 2 years to come up with a plan of departure from the EU. And as of recently the new PM of UK has stalled, stalled and stalled in initiating the mechanics of leaving -- actually officially the UK has yet to properly invoke Atricle 50. The danger here is that if they are too slow the EU will go ahead (in order to stabilise its own economy and politics) and do the cutting itself -- which will leave UK in a far more disadvantageous state than it was "in" the EU.

 

[sabrina]

[member="Darth Hauntruss"] non fun fact, the eu may implode before article 50 is started.
Greece can't pay it's debts, and some of the other eurozone countries have gone to IMF
Also they going to have to find away to plug the gap of uk contributions.
All that whilst hoping no one else follows us, as some other parties, not all ones I agree with want referendums.

 

[Darth Hauntruss]

[member="sabrina"]

1. non fun fact, the eu may implode before article 50 is started
Seeing that EU has drafted 2 years as the time span for coming up with a comprehensive plan to leave the EU and invoke Article 50, it is (however, entirely possible) but, highly unlikely the EU will "implode" in the next two years. There is no evidence currently (or speculatively) that would lead to the conclusion that the EU is on the brink of "imploding" or dissolving. Any current speculation on "who is next" is done so through a measured minority of right wing elements in certain states. Vast majority of EU member states are very much in the 'stay' camp. However, that could change come a big enough financial crisis. Which leads me into your next statement. --

2. Greece can't pay it's debts, and some of the other eurozone countries have gone to IMF
As much as my heart goes out to my Greek Bros and their economic struggles - Greece defaulting on its loans from the EU and IMF would in the long run only gravely harm Greece. The EU has a robust economy in France and Germany to such an extent that it can take a hit by Greece defaulting. The IMF, although a source of loans for some nations, only accounts for a small margin compared to how much nations get loans from each other and the major Banks of Europe. So frankly some nations running to the IMF is a small matter for the EU. And note that the only nation in the EU to conduct this so far is Greece.

3. Also they going to have to find away to plug the gap of uk contributions.
Although, if you check the EU Budget reports for 2015, the UK has contributed 7.5 Million Euros to EU Expenditure, they are only the 6th in greatest contributors. Countries such as Estonia and France dwarf UK's contributions with Estonia contributing 13 Million Euros and countries like Denmark and Poland contributing at 11 and 13 respectively. So any "gap" that the UK may leave can be overcome by current spending trends in the EU expenditure. Also the UK has steadily been reducing its contributions since 2010. So in a way UK is leaving a position it was already downsizing. Now it has the added problem however, of formally leaving and hoping they aren't given a rotten deal for it.

4. All that whilst hoping no one else follows us, as some other parties, not all ones I agree with want referendums.
This is an actual fair point. Referendums are a pretty silly method anyways.

 

[sabrina]

[member="Darth Hauntruss"] I am happy we are out, but if the eu is to fall, I like to stable break up, not chaos.

 

[sabrina]

[member="FalloutGuru"]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/01/ftse-100-breaks-6800-and-pound-skids-ahead-of-uk-manufacturing-d/?WT.mc_id=e_DM156644&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_FPM_New_AEM_Recipient&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_FPM_New_AEM_Recipient_2016_09_01&utm_campaign=DM156644

as said it would recover

 

[Raziel]

[member="sabrina"]

 

[Raziel]

Your link
"In the United Kingdom, while second-quarter growth surprised on the upside, more recent data foreshadow a sharp slowdown after the referendum. Further ahead, the outlook will be affected by the degree to which the future relationship with the European Union can preserve the benefits of economic integration and trade," it said in a report ahead fo this week's G20 meeting in China.

 

[Wolf]

Recession fears 'fade' as UK's service sector grows - BBC News

 

[sabrina]

[member="Raziel"] it's recovering, and I am sure it will carry on doing.
No recession, which is also a good thing.

 

[Raziel]

You can't on one hand point to the fact that the pound is recovering and the growth in the manufacturing industry together. They're related. Weak pound means cheaper goods for everyone else. But obviously means more expensive goods for everyone in the UK. The pound recovers to the same level, our manufacturing industry suffers. Which would you prefer?

We haven't left the EU yet.

We'll go the Norway model and everything will be the same, except we lose our voice in the EU.

 

[Raziel]

The pound dropped from 1.5 and stabilised around 1.3. It's now at 1.33

Your "Recovey" is a bit overstated.

Read full articles, not click bait headlines please.

 

[Wolf]

[member="Raziel"]
How do you know we'll go with the Norway model?

All we've got from Theresa May is "Brexit means Brexit", which tells us nothing.

 

[Raziel]

[member="FalloutGuru"]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/01/ftse-100-breaks-6800-and-pound-skids-ahead-of-uk-manufacturing-d/?WT.mc_id=e_DM156644&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_FPM_New_AEM_Recipient&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_FPM_New_AEM_Recipient_2016_09_01&utm_campaign=DM156644

as said it would recover

[member="sabrina"]

Got any other good predictions for me?

 

[Wolf]

[member="Raziel"]

It's got worse after the latest news where May announced the dates etc. These aren't unexpected. Currency markets naturally will fluctuate, and I don't think [member="sabrina"] was ever predicting there'd be a recovery within a few months.

What matters more than fluctuating currency markets is the actual GDP growth and real wealth of the country. Which so far, has not suffered.

UK services sector defies gloomy expectations as GDP grows by 0.7% - The Guardian

Britain will be fastest growing G7 economy this year, says IMF - The Guardian

Ultimately, we have to wait and see. As of now, apocalypse has not struck, as had been predicted by a number of people.

And also, you predicted earlier "We'll go the Norway model and everything will be the same, expect we lose our voice in the EU."

Do you stand by this prediction?

 

[Raziel]

[member="Wolf"]

The trio in charge of Brexit seem fairly keen to leave the single market. Well, Fox particularly.

I don't have faith that we can achieve such a thing without seriously harming our economy. Being part of the single market has been very good for our business. I'll be staggered if they can negotiate this and remove free movement of people (which is what the voters want to see an end to, despite it not really being a massive issue).

It would take very strong leadership over successive governments (who have the balls to make difficult and potentially unpopular decisions) to reform the way we do business in a free market. We'll have to stop propping up our agriculture as well.

Sabrina pointed to a very mild rise in the pound as evidence that it would recover. I have no shame in mocking that.

 

[Raziel]

Ultimately, I'm bored of people pointing at things and going "Post-brexit Britain is surging ahead!"

We're not post brexit. We're still getting all the benefits of EU membership.

 

[Druchi]

Scotland is moving closer and closer to the door marked EXIT. Really though Wales and England voted for Brexit Scotland and N.I didn't. It's a pretty divisive thing though it's interesting reading all the opinions and statistics which are being thrown around. I think we'll have to wait a bit more before we can say for sure either way. But I think England is leaving for sure.