Discussion So I built a dataset of Invasions (2013-2025 and counting)

[Jend-Ro Quill]

I think, personally, its also nice to see that overall board activity has fluctuated, but has by no means dropped off to an insane degree

TBH this was what I was hoping to find and why I took on the project in the first place. People were saying it felt less active than in past years and I disagreed but wanted to know who was right very slightly more than I wanted to be right.

 

[Jend-Ro Quill]

Truly it inspires in my small heart something akin to joy to see so many years of pain and suffering condensed, so elegantly, into graph format.

Where can we find meaning in our pain if not in a nice spreadsheet?

 

[Jasper Kai'el]

TBH this was what I was hoping to find and why I took on the project in the first place. People were saying it felt less active than in past years and I disagreed but wanted to know who was right very slightly more than I wanted to be right.

100%. I could not agree more. I think this is a great way to truly show the health of the community isn't as bleak as people think it is.

 

[Jend-Ro Quill]

100%. I could not agree more. I think this is a great way to truly show the health of the community isn't as bleak as people think it is.

Having popped in for a few months every couple years since like 2014, it really does feel as big and dynamic as it ever has been. The scope of the settings/communities being built inside GA and SO is staggering to me even as someone who ran a couple of MFs.

 

[Katherine Holt]

Yeah when it comes to activity, I feel like its more the case that the general interest has shifted over the years. I joined the site at the very end of 2016, so I missed the before times. From the stories I was told, it was more PvP/Map focused, which obviously drew a buzzing hive of activity. But that kind of focus began to shift sometime from 2017 onwards.

 

[Die Shize]

This is legit as cool as your face claim and I guess that's all I have to say.

OYE BELTALOWDA

 

[Jend-Ro Quill]

This is legit as cool as your face claim and I guess that's all I have to say.

OYE BELTALOWDA

WE GON RISE UP!

 

[Tefka]

Yeah when it comes to activity, I feel like its more the case that the general interest has shifted over the years. I joined the site at the very end of 2016, so I missed the before times. From the stories I was told, it was more PvP/Map focused, which obviously drew a buzzing hive of activity. But that kind of focus began to shift sometime from 2017 onwards.

its pretty important imo to note that invasions =/= site activity and are very much not representative of it.

2014 is the outlier here, it 100% was night and day in difference compared to today's activity. We were averaging maybe 1k-2k posts a day. It was pretty insane (and imo, pretty unmanageable). If that had sustained, todays rules and culture would look vastly different, as I would be forced to take a much more distant role, I think. Or I would've crashed out publicly lmao.

today, we bounce between 200-500 daily, and we have since COVID. The invasions don't match that, they show a downward trend in activity.

COVID was kinda wild in expectation management, to the point that me, Valiens, and like a roundtable of other successful RP forums all got together to chat about what they were experiencing because everyone was expecting an uptick but we were all experiencing the opposite.

As far as metrics go, I like to think I've been pretty in tune with what picks things up, puts things down, what works consistently and what doesn't. ofc i'm not always right, but i imagine I'm probably more right than most speculators.

It's fascinating because it gives room for plenty of speculation, but I wouldn't take this as gospel for activity. I was asked by the OP why I thought the trend signalled it was going downward, my answer was it's not because there's less people.

It's because the people that congregate here in 2025 is, on average, a decade older than the group that was here in 2014. Less energy, more IRL distractions, more health complications, less patience.

2014 Chaos was an unruly teenager looking to impress his girlfriend. 2025 Chaos is a 9-5 office worker checking their savings account in the parking lot avoiding their SO.

 

[Jend-Ro Quill]

The age thing is real. I have time to fart around in Junctions. I love Invasions in theory but when would I ever.

 

[Jend-Ro Quill]

Really this is all just me trying to live vicariously through you people.

 

[Delsin Shaw]

So why does it look like Invasions have declined? You promised me answers!
Well, like I said, there are spikes. Some of that has to do with faction political/identity factors.

• The GA and Sith had their back-and-forth, and there certainly seems like some mess in the Core Worlds, but largely, it looks to me like Invasions have become kind of piecemeal and without much big-picture impact. I can't blame people if they're feeling like lately, Invasions don't accomplish much for the effort.
• Invasion rules tweaks could be considered by people with way more skin in the game than I have, but at the faction level, there's no Ashlan One-Maw Imperium out there raving for your head. There's no 'democratization of fear.' Shame.

This one image of the One Sith and having almost 4k Posts in one quarter really nails home how many posts were thrown around at that time. With the following quarter 1 of 2015 is that final nail to show how heavy the Invasion game was at that time. Getting that feeling of a Thousand-Yard-Stare just seeing it.

I almost wonder if you have the information of the One Sith having more Posts/Invasions than both the Maw and NIO. Because just eyeballing it looks pretty damn close. Also, knowing that junctions took a major step forward when they were implemented and the Invasions stayed roughly at the same average level for the years prior does show how much activity there still is, just now being focused in multiple places.

 

[Selrik Lorcas]

COVID was kinda wild in expectation management, to the point that me, Valiens, and like a roundtable of other successful RP forums all got together to chat about what they were experiencing because everyone was expecting an uptick but we were all experiencing the opposite.

I'm curious. Did you guys ever figure out why there was a downturn despite everyone being stuck at home?

 

[Gat Tambor]

!! NIO mentioned !!

Love the analytics here. As much as I am for keeping the WARS in STAR WARS , definitely see the appeal in what has become not a full replacement but a viable alternative in things like junctions, etc. I think invasions do very much still bring an energy that other threads don't in that sense however, I think mainly due to the stakes involved being actionable (along with the 14 day time limit) as far as the map game goes but the slower 'post-at-your-own-leisure' nature of the alternatives definitely has an appeal.

 

[Tefka]

I'm curious. Did you guys ever figure out why there was a downturn despite everyone being stuck at home?

I have my guesses, but no, nobody really knows.

But if I had to wing it, were I pressed to guess...

1. Not as many people were at home as the media had you believe. The reality was, nurses had to nurse, grocers had to grocer.

2. The start of the entire thing was very scary and very real to a lot of people, so the monotonous "return to imaginary land after work" wasn't as appealing as it was when you had time to be bored.

3. When work and home life mixed, that light switch of "time to rp" stopped getting flipped on and off and stayed stuck in the neutral position.

Roleplaying is a hobby that appeals to the bored, not the anxious. When society is anxious, we lose membership.

 

[Tefka]

definitely see the appeal in what has become not a full replacement but a viable alternative in things like junctions, etc. I think invasions do very much still bring an energy that other threads don't in that sense

This point is exactly why invasions aren't representative of activity.

A very good, viable explanation for the downturn in activity in recent years = Junctions are eating into that space.

1000 posts that went to Invasions in 2014 might have gone to Junctions in 2024, and unfortunately this data doesn't represent that.

 

[Amara Zambrano]

My question is when moratoriums went into effect, I know we did it early but I don't think the first few years (2013-2014) had a moratorium.

It literally wasn't until I got fed up with the community exploiting the holiday meta (I think a faction launched an invasion 3 days before Christmas or something like that) that caused moratoriums to be created.

november 2016 was the first time staff declared december to be invasion free.

2016 was when we changed invasion rules for the first time, in fact we had a pause in invasion twice that year (because of rule changes + the moratorium).

 

[Valiens Nantaris]

TBH this was what I was hoping to find and why I took on the project in the first place. People were saying it felt less active than in past years and I disagreed but wanted to know who was right very slightly more than I wanted to be right.

As Tef said we've been remarkably steady on posts for years now. The size of the map increasing and the number of planets definitely contributes too. The first original map was relative small and rules were freer so one could easily conquer a lot of stuff. Post count requirements were higher and there were forced incentives to post for dev threads etc.

Fantastic dataset, Jon!

 

[Jend-Ro Quill]

A very good, viable explanation for the downturn in activity in recent years = Junctions are eating into that space.

1000 posts that went to Invasions in 2014 might have gone to Junctions in 2024, and unfortunately this data doesn't represent that.

UPDATE: The Junction Hypothesis

Let's take a closer look at Junctions. Everything above involved false starts and dead ends and adding Junctions was more straightforward than I expected.

The data now includes 78 Junctions for an additional 7,858 replies, equivalent to somewhere around one or two million words. (Average posts may be shorter.)

Junctions may be individually smaller than Invasions on average, but they added up to completely change the 'Invasion+' picture of the last few years. In fact, 2024 saw almost as many 'Invasion+' posts as the average of all previous full years, outlier spikes included (4230 vs 4830 for 2014-23). 2024 was an average year. 2025 is also on track to be an average year.

 

[Tefka]

Im tellin u man ive been locked in for a decade plus

Now someone go peer review this data so i can be right three times in a row

 

[Tefka]

november 2016 was the first time staff declared december to be invasion free.

2016 was when we changed invasion rules for the first time, in fact we had a pause in invasion twice that year (because of rule changes + the moratorium).

How can one man be so right